Heath Care Update: Medicaid Enrollment Is Up Where They Want Medicaid

Not surprisingly, Medicaid enrollment is up in states where they want Medicaid.

Since open enrollment for expanded Medicaid coverage started last October under Obamacare the Affordable Care Act, the federal government has been releasing Medicaid enrollment numbers for all 50 states. In the most recent report released August 8, Medicaid enrollment is up in the states that have decided to expand (25 + DC), while in states that didn’t expand Medicaid, enrollment is do- Wait, enrollment is actually up in most of those states, too.

For instance, in Kentucky, an expansion state, Medicaid enrollment is up almost 17% from this time last year. Neighboring Tennessee, which hasn’t expanded, is still up 7%. The word is out on enrolling for health insurance, whether it’s for private plans or Medicaid.

From May to June 2014, six months into expansion, Medicaid enrollment increased nearly everywhere.

Medicaid enrollment May 2014 to June 2014

Even states not expanding Medicaid are seeing their Medicaid rolls grow from month-to-month. (Source: CMS)

Taking a wider view, CMS tracks the enrollment change from before open enrollment (the average of June through September 2013) to June 2014. In expanding states, there has been an 18% increase since last year (6.5 million more people), while non-expanding states have increase 4% (975,000 people). You can see the stark difference in the chart below:

Medicaid enrollment differences from last year to this year

There is a stark difference in Medicaid enrollment between non-expanding states and expanding states. (Source: CMS)

Each dot is a state, and the brighter the dot, the more states are clustered around that percentage. For expanding states, Nevada and Oregon have increased their Medicaid population by over 50%, while the highest non-expanding state is Georgia, by percentage (16%) and population (246,000 more people). You’d think with that much pent up demand in places like Georgia or Florida (223,000 more people), that would move the needle a bit in the state legislatures.

Taking a more detailed dive into the year-to-year change, below shows the type of online health care exchange states are using. The exchange can be both for Medicaid and private insurance.

Health Care Exchange type by Medicaid Expansion

States that are expanding Medicaid are less likely to leave managing their health care exchange to solely the federal government. (Source: CMS)

As you’d expect, the states expanding Medicaid are more likely to be running their own exchange (SBM) or partner with the federal government (Partnership). Non-expanding states usually leave it to the feds to run on their own, or only have a small part of it run by the state. (For example, Mississippi has an exchange for small business health plans that they run.)

These monthly enrollment reports really demonstrate how the politics of the Affordable Care Act through the lens of Medicaid expansion is creating vastly different health care environments for the working poor.

(Code for the plots is on GitHub here.)

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Justified: Was Season Five Any Good? (Apparently)

Raylan Givens. You swaggering, cowboy hat wearing, US federal marshal. Why are you so awesome? Is it the tight jeans? (For a lot of people, yes, it’s the tight jeans.) The anachronistic, aforementioned cowboy hat and boots? The sly grin? The itchy trigger finger?

Timothy Olyphant plays Raylan, a character created by Elmore Leonard, brilliantly on the FX series Justified, which finished up its fifth season in April. (It’s sixth and final season airs next year.) The show is about Givens, a US federal marshal, who is reassigned to his home state of Kentucky after dealing with a criminal in Miami by, uh, killing him. Back in familiar environs, he spends way too much time mixing it up with the knuckleheads he grew up with in eastern Kentucky in Harlan County. The rest of the cast is full of rich characters (financially, they’re mostly poor), especially the standout Walton Goggins, who plays Raylan’s biggest bugaboo, the smooth talking and verbose career criminal Boyd Crowder. (You could make an argument that Boyd has become the main character over Raylan, or at least they are now co-leads.)

Justified is a great show because it lives up to Elmore Leonard’s name by creating a rollicking, fully spun world of jaded (and wisecracking) lawmen and degenerates. There are a vast array of marshals, corrupt sheriffs, drug dealers, lawyers, hoodlums, hillbillies, prostitutes, thirtysomething blondes (Raylan loves thirtysomething blondes), and various holler royalty all striving for financial security, respect, business opportunity, or to be able to blow off some steam at Audrey’s without the federals getting in their business.

Despite all of this, I thought that the quality of the story dipped some in the fifth season. It was still really entertaining, but the stories of Boyd Crowder and Raylan drifted apart, despite Raylan making the three hour drive to Harlan with improbable frequency. This got me thinking if others thought the same as well. I’ve decided to see if the IMDb user ratings of individual episodes reflected that dip. I’ve also come up with a few hypotheses while I was at it. Let’s see if they are true.

Hypothesis One: Season Two has the highest IMDb ratings; Season 5 the lowest

To my surprise, Justified's IMDb ratings have been increasing since Season 1

To my surprise, Justified’s IMDb ratings have been increasing since Season 1

Verdict? Wrong

Venturing a Guess: Kinda surprised by this. The biggest jump in IMDb ratings was largest between Season 1 and Season 2, so we can assume that is when the show really took off. It featured Margo Martindale in an Emmy-winning performance as Mags Bennett, the cider-brewing, general store-owning head of the Bennett clan and her dumbass adult sons. The Bennetts also happen to control the marijuana trade in Harlan and have a blood feud with the Givens family. Great stuff.

Hypothesis Two: The first and last episodes of each season have the highest IMDb ratings

Justified IMDb Rating by Episode of Season

IMDb ratings start of high, dip in the middle of the season, and then increase in the home stretch.

Verdict? Pretty much correct.

Venturing a Guess: The IMDb ratings do start off with a RPG firing into a church bang, drop a bit, and then rise again as the season finishes. The season finales are rated higher by IMDb users than the premieres. This isn’t too surprising: people get pumped for the show starting up again, lose a little interest as it goes along, and rises again when the limosuines get lit up shit hits the fan. Apparently episodes 9 are good, too. Start on episode 9 if you haven’t watched the show before.

Hypothesis Three: Justified’s IMDb ratings aren’t correlated with viewership numbers

Justified's TV viewership doesn't seem to affect IMDb user ratings

Justified’s TV viewership doesn’t seem to affect IMDb user ratings

Verdict? Correct

Venturing a Guess: More people actually watching the show doesn’t necessarily mean that IMDb users will give an episode higher ratings. The show almost always gets between 2-2.5 million viewers and between an 8-9 IMDb rating.

Conclusion & Bonus Chart: TV Ratings for Each Episode of a Season

Justified TV Ratings per Episode of Season

Ratings are high for the first episode of the season, trough in the middle, and rise slightly at the end.

Thank You For A Surprise Chart: You’re welcome.

Explain It: Fine. Like the IMDb ratings, Justified’s viewership starts off hot, drops in the middle, and comes back up slightly at the end of a season.

Conclusion: I think what we’re seeing here in Justified‘s IMDb ratings is that die hard fans are the one’s voting. This isn’t too surprising, of course. Who else would take the time to register for IMDb and then vote for a cultish FX drama?

Here’s how I reach that conclusion: Justified’s TV ratings and the number of IMDb votes are going down while the IMDb scores are going up. The average number of votes per episode per season has gone down precipitously (548 per episode in season one to 221 in season five), TV ratings are at their lowest in season five (2.3 million per episode; season two was the highest at 2.7 million), but the IMDb ratings are at their best now (average of 8.6 per episode in season five; it was only 8.25 in season 1).

The people who have stuck around with this show for the last five years really like it. I’m sure they/me will be rewarded in the next and final season. That thing I said about the Raylan and Boyd plots drifting too far apart… yeah, that’s not gonna last.

Notes

  • The IMDb rating system is weighted to reduce the influence of “ballot stuffing.” Here’s is their FAQ.
  • Code used to scrape IMDb, the data set produced from that, and the plots are located here on GitHub.
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World Cup 2014: Thumbs Up from Lukas Podolski, Instagram Star

Podolski Merkel selfie, World Cup 2014 Brazil, Instagram

German forward Lukas Podolski in a selfie with Angela Merkel at the 2014 World Cup (Credit: Lukas Podolski’s Instagram account)

I didn’t really know who Lukas Podolski was until some late night social media-ing. I now wish I would have paid more attention to the Polish-born forward because Lukas Podolski is an Instagram star.

I’ve probably watched him play dozens of times for Germany and Arsenal, although I didn’t really know who he was beyond hearing his name. To me, Podolski is another anonymous part of the Mannschaft, the intimidating nickname of the German national team. It just means “team”, but since it’s German, it hints at ruthless precision and metallurgy. You can probably replace him with another perfectly engineered possession-chewing fußballer, and the assembly line would still run.

Poldi is a delight on IG. He posts adorable selfies with his teammates, Portuguese love letters to Brazil (after the beat down, natch), and calls throwing a rugby ball like a quarterback “Training American style !”. Not to mention a selfie with Angela Merkel. (I’m sure they discussed central bank policy.) You win, Lukas, you win.

The most disturbing trend is what I’ve labeled “Hiked Up Shorts”, wherein he and his teammates pose together with their shorts pulled up so as to look to like tighty-whities (the shorts are black). Hilarious because they’re German and don’t have the American shame about letting it all hang out. Smart because it’s hot as hell in Brazil. Uncomfortable because it’s grown men hiking up their shorts to their crotches with their arms around each other.

His favorite pose is by far the “thumbs up.” He’s usually with a teammate or two, or with Ronaldinho, and he gives a big grin with a fist curled and the first digit pointing straight in the air for all the world to see. When I noticed this trend, I knew I had to break it down.

Lukas Podolski thumbs up World Cup 2014

Lukas Podolski’s favorite Instagram pose is by far the “thumbs up”

I’ve categorized all of his Instagrams since Germany commenced national team training on May 21, landed in Brazil for the World Cup on June 8, and up through July 12 at 9:30 central time, 30 hours before the final on July 13. By my count, he’s posted 99 photos. Seventeen have a thumbs up, 7 have a peace sign, and 6 are fists. There’s also some pointing involved, but I didn’t notice that before it was too late.

Lukas Podolski’s feed will definitely be a must see if the Mannschaft take out Argentina. There’ll be so many joyous selfies, hopefully with his shorts worn correctly.

Prediction: Germany 3 – Argentina 1

(Code and data located here.)

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World Cup 2014: At Least We Ran The Farthest

Well, at least the United States Men’s National Team ran the farthest. Even though the US couldn’t get past Belgium, the team ran 497km (an equivalent of 309 miles), the most of any country that made the Round of 16. Michael Bradley, the focus of much criticism in the group stage, actually hoofed it the most of any player: 54.7km over four games. Dude was working, even if he could’ve played better. (Jermaine Jones ran the the third most of any player through four: 47.6km; Dempsey, 14th most at 45.4km.)

US World Cup distance covered

If it’s any consolation, the US team ran the farthest through the first four games of the World Cup.

FIFA keeps track of the distance that each player covers (in kilometers) and updates it after each game. In addition to total distance covered, which is the above graph, they also have distance covered while in possession of the ball, distance while not in possession, and my favorite, top speed.

Our bald friend Bradley clocked in at 30.9 km/hour, which is really quick. The fastest guy has actually been Costa Rica’s Junior Diaz, who at 30-years-old got up to 33.8km/h at some point. (To put that in perspective, Usain Bolt averages around 37-38km/h.)

Top Speed Distribution by Country, World Cup 2014

Distribution of top speeds by country in the 2014 World Cup through the first four games

Looking at the team distribution of top speeds, the slow pokes that stick out are on Columbia (Faryd Mondragon, a goalie put in for only five minutes), Argentina (Enzo Perez, which is a mistake on FIFA’s web site because Perez hasn’t played a game yet), and Belgium’s goalie Octopus Arms Thibaut Courtois. Come on, goalies and guys mistakenly credited as actually playing, speed up!

All in all, the US earned its reputation as hard workers, as seen through the amount of territory they covered. They were running for their lives, fighting off attack after attack. In the end they came up short, but it was about as intense a series of games as I’ve ever seen.

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World Cup 2014: USMNT Roster Jitters

The US has finished its warm-up games and is now as ready as they’ll ever be for their first match against Ghana on June 16. Their schedule is brutal, and coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s roster choices hasn’t eased the worrying. Klinsmann has a history of taking an untested team to great success, but he also has flamed out. (Such is the life of a soccer coach.)

Looking at America’s World Cup rosters (like I did for Brazil), something is missing: the years, 1954-1986. The US didn’t qualify for the tournament the entire time the Berlin Wall was up. (COINCIDENCE???? Yeah, probably a coincidence.) After 1950, they didn’t qualify until 1990, and it wasn’t until 1994 that the national team garnered any type of discussion.

US World Cup Roster age

The 2014 team features a wide range of ages

The US men’s national team (USMNT) at the early World Cups were all over the place age-wise. The 1990 team was actually the youngest because the majority of that team was still in college or playing in semi-pro leagues. The current 2014 roster swings a bit older than 2010 despite Klinsmann making moves like cutting veteran Landon Donovan and keeping 19-year-old Julian Green. Since the modern era, each US team has had an average age of around 27 or 28.

Jurgen Klinsmann's roster choices - caps

This is one of America’s least experienced international teams, a consequence of the coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s roster choices.

This World Cup team is easily the least experienced based on the number of international appearances, known as caps. However, Klinsmann’s youth strategy in the above graph is continuing the trend of fewer caps than the previous World Cup. It’s just that the guys with the least amount of in-game experience this time around hardly have any international reps at all. Five of the twenty-three guys actually have 10 or fewer international games each under their belt. The aforementioned Julian Green only has one, and that was just to get him cap-tied. (Funny note: Klinsmann has recruited so many players that could either play for the US or another international team that US Soccer has seen fit to create an explainer about what “cap-tied” means.)

US World Cup Roster club country

A little more than half the American 2014 World Cup team play abroad for their professional careers

Finally, before the modern era of the USMNT, every American played for a domestic professional club at the time of the World Cup. These teams in the 1930s had some great names: Providence Gold Bugs, Cleveland Slavia, the Philadelphia German-Americans, and the Chicago Slovaks. Basically each World Cup team consisted of the best of the best from immigrant, blue collar pick up games based in manufacturing towns. I can see the smoke stacks towering over the lumpy fields now. The US soccer training system didn’t exist, and players didn’t have anywhere to go but next to the steel mill.

Since the mid-90s, the US has developed a respectable domestic league (although it’s not on par with the top European outfits), and guys have the option of either playing with the MLS or going abroad now. In fact, two of the USMNT’s best players, Michael Bradley and captain Clint Dempsey, came back to the MLS with much fanfare in the last year. Of course, the coach wants his guys to stay in Europe, but you can’t deny the allure of coming home and earning equivalent pay.

The make-up of the 2014 US men’s national team is a little different this year, a reflection of Klinsmann trying to push the team – and the American soccer “program” – forward. He’s trying to walk a tight line by planning for future World Cups by filling out the current roster with young players in the face of a tremendously hard tournament that starts this week. I hope his plan works, but, man, it makes me queasy. If the USMNT can get out of the group into the knock-out rounds, it’ll be a rousing success.

(Data and code are here.)

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World Cup 2014: Brazilian Players with One Name

The World Cup is coming! The World Cup is coming!

The tournament opens on June 12, when host nation Brazil plays Croatia in Sao Paulo. I feel likes it’s snuck up on me, even though I’ve been diligently following the US qualifying run for 18 months (The US began qualifying in October 2012). Also, I’ve been having nightmares caused by the Von Trapps’ first round schedule this summer against Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. I’m breaking out into a cold sweat thinking about it right now.

But rather than focus on potential disappointment (but what else is a sports fan to do, you ask), I’m here to examine the Brazilian World Cup roster in the only way I can: one-named players. I thought it would be, say, 50% of the team since the first World Cup in 1934, but I was way off. Try 79%. It’s actually trending down a bit.

Brazilian one-named player count

Brazilian players in the World Cup with one name have dominated the rosters since the first World Cup in 1930.

Let’s slice and dice the Seleção a bit more while we’re at it. The average age of the team has risen slowly but surely since 1934. The team in the first World Cup has an average age of exactly 24, while it’s been around 28 the last three tournaments.

Brazilian world cup age

The average age of Brazilian World Cup rosters has increased since the first World Cup in 1930.

Finally, the professional teams these superstars play for when not on World Cup duty reflect how club soccer has changed. Only one player since the first World Cup played professionally for a non-Brazilian team (Patesko in 1934, the first World Cup, played for Uruguay Nacional) until 1982, when a whopping two national team members played for Roma and Atlético Madrid, respectively. Now the Brazilian team is even more spreadout, with only four guys playing for local teams on the 2014 roster.

Brazilian world cup club teams

With an exception of one player in 1934, every Brazilian World Cup player played for a Brazilian pro team at the time of the World Cup until the 1980s

Data and R code are located here.

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An Atlanta Hawks Requiem: The Brooklyn Nets Turned Good

I thought I might jinx my Atlanta Hawks with my January post about how awful the Brooklyn Nets were. If I believed in jinxes and the consequences of forgetting to “knock on wood,” I would point to this paragraph:

As it currently stands, Brooklyn is a long shot to make the playoffs. Their odds to make it have fluctuated between 14-30% the last two weeks.The Hawks are near the top of the conference standings (their odds are 98.5% as of January 3), even though they stand no chance against the teams ahead of them, Indiana and Miami.

I did couch my expectations, despite risking getting struck by lightning, that hoping Brooklyn would stay terrible, but “that they should play better the rest of the way.” That last prediction turned out to be true. (Make enough predictions, one of them has to be right, right?) 2014 has been a good year for the Nets. Not so much for the Hawks.

Hawks Nets Winning Percentage 2013-14 NBA Season

The winning percentage of the Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets through the 2013-14 NBA season before and after major injuries.

The Atlanta Hawks are limping into the playoffs, losing the opportunity to snatch Brooklyn’s draft pick (because Brooklyn has finished with a better record than Atlanta) and settling for a mid-first rounder.  Al Horford’s injury is the major reason for their demise. Before the injury on December 26, the Hawks were 16-13. For the next 53 games, they finished 22-31. At one point in February and March, they went 1-15. Ugh.

The Nets also suffered a season-ending injury from a major player, Brook Lopez, around the same time. Before the Lopez injury, they were 9-17. After? Oh, just 35-21, a 0.625 winning percentage. In the graph above, you can see the two teams’ fortunes before and after their major injuries.

How did Brooklyn bounce back? According to Zach Lowe from Grantland:

The Nets’ season turned when they shifted Paul Pierce to power forward, committed to their own weird version of small ball, and amped up their defensive pressure all over the floor. The team’s rebounding has suffered, but it has thrived in almost every other area.

Atlanta didn’t have the fortune of having future hall-of-famers (Pierce, Kevin Garnett) and several other high-priced veterans (Deron Williams, Joe Johnson), so the loss of Horford had a big effect on the team. Here’s what happened to each team’s points scored and points allowed before and after the December injuries.

Hawks Nets PPG

Atlanta and Brooklyn reacted differently to major injuries. Atlanta’s offense dropped, and Brooklyn’s defense greatly improved.

Atlanta’s defense (the circles) got a little worse, while their offense (the triangles) dipped by 3.4 points per game. (That’s a lot.) Brooklyn’s offense actually improved after Lopez went out, and so did their defense.

So, the Hawks get the honor of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, despite a lackluster season. They lose out on a better draft pick, while Brooklyn, with the highest payroll in the league, righted the ship and now will be a tough matchup for any team. Wishing the worst for strangers playing a sport in order for another group of strangers playing the same sport to benefit has not payed off. Back to the drawing board.

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